Tuesday 12 November 2019

Depressing 2020s?

Merrill Lynch’s report and prediction for the next decade make for sombre reading.  Called Transforming World: The 2020s, it predicts growing unemployment, financial bubbles popping, growing global populations and an environment on the brink of disaster: 

We enter the next decade with interest rates at 5,000-year lows, the largest asset bubble in history, a planet that is heating up, and a deflationary profile of debt, disruption and demographics. We will end it with nearly 1bn people added to the world, a rapidly ageing population, up to 800mn people facing the threat of job automation and the environment on the brink of catastrophic change” (quote from the Globe and Mail 12 November 2019).

It is difficult to argue against any of these assumptions and predictions. However, it may underestimate the positive effects of the increasing global mobility of labour and people, as a way to counter the ageing population and unemployment. See also  globalmobilitymigration.com. 

Published by Johann van Rooyen (Director: Citizenship & Residence Research Consultants (CRRC)
https://www.globalmobilitymigration.com/p/crrc.html

Tuesday 2 October 2018

Populism in Quebec

The French-majority Canadian province of Quebec has just elected a right-leaning populist government in favour of cutting taxes and immigration levels. The relatively new Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), soundly defeated the Liberals and the Parti Québécois, two parties that governed since 1966. It won or is leading in 74 of the province’s 125 ridings (60%), compared with 32 for the Liberals and 10 for the Parti Québécois.
The new government consists of an informal coalition of federalists and former separatists and its victory represents a strong indictment of Quebec’s political establishment. It can also be seen as a nod to the populist movements seen across Europe and elsewhere, but the CAQ’s broad-based populist nature is not exclusively right-wing. This is evident from its adoption of policies across the spectrum, including limiting emigration, cutting taxes, boosting public daycare programmes, and in favour of carbon-pricing and pro-choice on abortion.

Wednesday 14 March 2018

New EU problems for African passport holders

With already the weakest passports in the world, things started to look up for African countries in 2018, with a grandiose scheme to introduce a continent-wide e-Passport. This will allow African Union passport holders to enter any of the 54 member states without visas.

But this week the EU warned that tough new visa requirements will be introduced targeting the source states that are responsible for hundreds of thousands of economic migrants illegally entering Europe each year. Unless they cooperate to readily re-admit their own citizens who have been refused asylum by EU countries, stricter conditions for processing visas applications from African countries will follow. These include Mali, Senegal and the Ivory Coast. 

New visa restrictions will include longer processing time, the length of validity of visas issued, higher fees and exemptions for diplomatic passport holders. The latter will surely hurt the travelling bureaucratic elites of Africa and should have an immediate impact and encourage offending states to re-admit their own citizens. 

Wednesday 28 February 2018

Justin Trudeau calamatous Indian diplomacy

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau just came back from an eight-day trip to India. The general perception is that Trudeau probably wishes he never went, following a disastrous experience which caused unmeasurable harm to the strong diplomatic ties between the two countries. This ranged from Trudeau getting involved in domestic Indian and separatist Sikh politics, to his outlandish ethnic outfits for each occasion, to being snubbed by Prime Minister Modi until the last day. It was followed by a diplomatic storm with Trudeau accusing factions in the Indian government of sabotaging his trip and a damning response by the Indian government. Trudeau certainly won't be seen anywhere near India ever again, adding to his equally disastrous visit to China a few months earlier.
A bit of historical perspective: In 1958 when Canadian PM John Diefenbaker visited India, officials debated the pros and cons of whether he should go on a tiger hunt, and they concluded that one of the cons was that the "Prime Minister could be eaten by tiger." After Trudeau's visit, the prevailing sentiment is more likely to be that in the latter’s case, being eaten by a tiger would have been a big pro.

Tuesday 19 December 2017

The lessons that Jacob Zuma can learn from PW Botha

Read the full article by Jackie Cameron in Biznews.com:  https://www.biznews.com/thought-leaders/2017/12/20/jacob-zuma-pw-botha/

The election of Cyril Ramaphosa as president of the African National Congress and Jacob Zuma remaining on as the South African president for a further 18 months, is reminiscent of another era in South African politics.

Almost 28 years earlier, in January 1989, the South African president, PW Botha, had a mild stroke and decided unilaterally and without thinking too deeply about the implications, to separate his position as president from that of leader of the National Party. Ostensibly Botha wanted to ‘lighten his workload’ and to be able fulfill the role as a national ‘unifier’ for all races. He resigned as party leader in February and requested the party to elect a new leader. FW de Klerk’s narrow victory as leader of the National Party on the same day set-in motion a chain of events that led to Botha being forced out seven months later.

The conflict that ensued between De Klerk and Botha was, at its core, a power struggle between two centers of power.  Botha became a president without a power base (except for the one that he believed he had among all “good South Africans”), and De Klerk felt that he had the base to implement his own reformist policies. Over the next few months Botha pretended as if nothing has changed and tried to continue with general policy-making decisions, including issues of national security, foreign affairs, constitutional affairs and the economy, while De Klerk attempted to stamp his authority on the government and began to contemplate some progressive reforms. Clashes ranged from subtle barbs by Botha, challenging his successor’s status and motives, and Botha’s private reception of the still-imprisoned Nelson Mandela without consulting De Klerk. 

The hostility between the two men eventually turned into open conflict over the date of the next general election and matters came to a head in August 1989, when a seething Botha publicly challenged De Klerk on his meeting with Kenneth Kaunda of Zambia. The vast majority of the NP caucus supported De Klerk. Botha had several options – he could fire the whole cabinet, call a general election or resign. After a volatile cabinet meeting where a bitter Botha levied recrimination against his colleagues, he announced his resignation on television the next day. As Botha’s successor, De Klerk then continued to transform the South African political landscape within the next six months.
While the constitutional position in which PW Botha found himself in 1989 differs from that which Zuma finds himself 28 years later, the principle of a weakened leader without a loyal and legitimate powerbase remains the same. Ramaphosa will soon want to change the direction of the country away from the ‘failing state’ that SA has become under the corruption, state capture and incompetence of the Zuma era. While Zuma has everything to gain from the status quo and still has his grip on the levers of power as President, the center of gravity has dramatically shifted to the new leader.

And during his remaining time as President and probably much sooner, Zuma will learn that Ramaposa’s power base has increased exponentially and that he will be directly challenged on all fronts. This includes Zuma’s prerogative to appoint cabinet ministers. Zuma’s short-term salvation might be that fact that 49% of the congress voted for his preferred candidate Dlameni-Zuma, but even this leverage will wear off as Ramaphosa tightens his grip on power. Conflict on policy and administration will emerge between Zuma and Ramaphosa, just like between FW de Klerk and PW Botha. Like Botha, Zuma will be on the losing side most of the time, and he probably has less than six months left as President of South Africa. 

Johann  van Rooyen, for Global Finances and Politics

Tuesday 5 December 2017

EU crackdown on tax havens

The EU has placed 17 countries and territories on a tax haven blacklist and put a further 47 on notice. This follows the revelations contained in the Panama and the Paradise Papers, and estimates that about $673 billion is lost to governments each year due to aggressive tax avoidance.

The EU blacklist and will be linked to European legislation to ensure these jurisdictions will not be eligible for funds from the EU (except for development aid), but apart from that, no real sanctions were put in place.

The blacklist includes South Korea, Mongolia, Namibia, Panama, Trinidad & Tobago, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, Guam, American Samoa, Barbados, Grenada, Macau, the Marshall Islands, Palau, St Lucia, Samoa and Tunisia. Interestingly, only three countries on this list - St Lucia, Grenada and Panama - are also actively engaged in residency- and citizenship by investment programmes.

Hopefully this will further counter the misperception that countries ‘selling’ 2nd passports are necessarily synonymous with blacklisted tax havens or involved in dubious tax practices.


Friday 1 December 2017

Electric cars cheaper than gas

Electric cars are already cheaper to own and run than petrol or diesel cars in the UK, US (Texas and California) and Japan, taking into account subsidies, purchase price, depreciation, fuel, insurance, taxation and maintenance.

According to an article in the Guardian, if this trend continues, electric cars are expected to become the cheapest option even without subsidies in a few years. Read the whole article below: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study

Sunday 19 November 2017

Great residency options for HNWIs

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/globe-wealth/real-estate-hot-spots-draw-the-worlds-affluent/article35942457/

Tuesday 22 August 2017

CROSS BORDER PLANNING FOR THE PRIVATE CLIENT - LONDON 28-29 SEP 2017

I will be speaking at this event on 29th September in London. VIP passes with free attendance are available, should anybody be in the neighbourhood at the time: VIP Code FKW53524SPK.


https://finance.knect365.com/cross-border-planning-for-the-private-client-europe/?vip_code=FKW53524SPK&utm_source=Speaker&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=FKW53524SPK-Speaker-Email&utm_content=FKW53524SPK&tracker_id=FKW53524SPK

Monday 1 May 2017

The end of Jacob Zuma?

Could the broad anti-Zuma protests which are now reaching a crescendo across South Africa, finally be bringing the President close to his Ceaușescu moment?  

The humiliating and crushing treatment dished out to Zuma at the main Workers’ Day rally in Bloemfontein on the 1st of May where he was prevented from speaking by trade unions members, could finally spell the end of his presidency. This is in addition to several months of calls for his to resignation from leaders across the spectrum, including opposition parties, members of the tripartite alliance – Cosatu and the SACP, ANC veterans, three former South African Presidents and Archbishop Desmond Tutu, and even members of his own cabinet.

The significance of Zuma booed and heckled will have emboldened the anti-Zuma elements both within the ANC alliance and in the opposition, especially supporters of the EFF, a party which is frequently thrown out of Parliament when disrupting Zuma's speaches. His rapidly diminishing support-base is now limited to group of financial beneficiaries, assorted sycophants and the Gupta family. The rousing applause that Vice-President Cyril Ramaphosa received at a similar venue and his open criticism of Zuma, make it unlikely for the two men to ever appear together at a public venue again. 

When Nicolae Ceaușescu of Romania, Erich Honecker of East Germany were confronted by hostile and resentful crowds and were seen as powerless to do anything about it, the floodgates finally opened and soon led to their downfall. Zuma should keep these examples in mind in case he is considering an authoritarian response to growing opposition to his Presidency, as Matthews Posa warned he might doing.

In either case, South Africa has moved past the point of no-return, where either the masses in the streets will soon bring down Zuma, or his own Party will do so as an act of self-preservation.  

© Johann van Rooyen, 1 May 2017

Also see the author's other blog at  Residency and Citizenship for Investors