tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-62828320691462432952024-03-20T16:46:43.172-07:00Global Financial and Political Insights 2017Financial and political analysis covering current affairs, the global economy and politics, financial markets and travel trends. Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6282832069146243295.post-70530149811960131582019-11-12T09:40:00.003-08:002019-11-12T10:52:20.410-08:00Depressing 2020s?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDESpxjZJ0l42oLX6Cw5ukhHLLFd9YqeRllyA12molAl3TilogdVT2GeNPr9FWCKuFnDEUGAViA0nhs64hCxTmhI5jt-Q4oW7iwtPctsSZf9161i0bYN1LE6FME7AILLZuuxaEeP3eu_vk/s1600/1388612_market_movements_2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="100" data-original-width="100" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDESpxjZJ0l42oLX6Cw5ukhHLLFd9YqeRllyA12molAl3TilogdVT2GeNPr9FWCKuFnDEUGAViA0nhs64hCxTmhI5jt-Q4oW7iwtPctsSZf9161i0bYN1LE6FME7AILLZuuxaEeP3eu_vk/s400/1388612_market_movements_2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">Merrill Lynch’s report and prediction for the next decade make for sombre reading. Called <u>Transforming World: The 2020s</u>, it predicts growing unemployment, financial bubbles popping, growing global populations and an environment on the brink of disaster: </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: blue; font-size: large;"><i><span style="color: blue;">“</span>We enter the next decade with interest rates at 5,000-year lows, the largest asset bubble in history, a planet that is heating up, and a deflationary profile of debt, disruption and demographics. We will end it with nearly 1bn people added to the world, a rapidly ageing population, up to 800mn people facing the threat of job automation and the environment on the brink of catastrophic change” (quote from the Globe and Mail 12 November 2019).</i></span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-size: large;"><i><br /></i></span>
<span style="color: blue; font-size: large;">It is difficult to argue against any of these assumptions and predictions. However, it may underestimate the positive effects of the increasing global mobility of labour and people, as a way to counter the ageing population and unemployment. See also <a href="https://www.globalmobilitymigration.com/p/homr.html" target="_blank">globalmobilitymigration.com</a>.</span><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-size: large;"><i><br /></i></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Published by Johann van Rooyen (Director: Citizenship & Residence Research Consultants (CRRC)</span><br />
<a href="https://www.globalmobilitymigration.com/p/crrc.html"><span style="font-size: large;">https://www.globalmobilitymigration.com/p/crrc.html</span></a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6282832069146243295.post-54058323577004543442018-10-02T10:12:00.003-07:002018-10-02T10:13:02.680-07:00Populism in Quebec<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipOlzbVFk-XPkEMuWignLftgRdh9mYhWoyK9eMm87CfJ2KY_s0ErE2C8ORKV-GoC8_oicSAAycffiAtLs0mD5vytRrOGSdUU6iIAYPYanxVOhUWx-K1vdeKnN-CClQ-bnZu-xH9iFyDIDU/s1600/FREEflag-28555__340.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="340" data-original-width="510" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipOlzbVFk-XPkEMuWignLftgRdh9mYhWoyK9eMm87CfJ2KY_s0ErE2C8ORKV-GoC8_oicSAAycffiAtLs0mD5vytRrOGSdUU6iIAYPYanxVOhUWx-K1vdeKnN-CClQ-bnZu-xH9iFyDIDU/s400/FREEflag-28555__340.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div style="background: 0px 0px rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.75); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 2rem; line-height: 3.2rem; margin-bottom: 3.2rem; margin-top: 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
The French-majority Canadian province of Quebec has just elected a right-leaning populist government in favour of cutting taxes and immigration levels. The relatively new Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), soundly defeated the Liberals and the Parti Québécois, two parties that governed since 1966. It won or is leading in 74 of the province’s 125 ridings (60%), compared with 32 for the Liberals and 10 for the Parti Québécois.</div>
<div style="background: 0px 0px rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.75); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 2rem; line-height: 3.2rem; margin-bottom: 3.2rem; margin-top: 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
The new government consists of an informal coalition of federalists and former separatists and its victory represents a strong indictment of Quebec’s political establishment. It can also be seen as a nod to the populist movements seen across Europe and elsewhere, but the CAQ’s broad-based populist nature is not exclusively right-wing. This is evident from its adoption of policies across the spectrum, including limiting emigration, cutting taxes, boosting public daycare programmes, and in favour of carbon-pricing and pro-choice on abortion.</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6282832069146243295.post-12651848980294282382018-03-14T15:57:00.000-07:002018-03-14T15:57:34.078-07:00New EU problems for African passport holders<div style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7-X49uQWOX9Rh5rBwpr04Sh8P4vR7q4INjSvpkb2w2ApSvwSM6qqIaKY7qNNpP2y_R7CGdpGLW4rdlPkMvIuJ95JFVS8oZJayjmN-ud0JJSspdgqlm7Wyki-iyU23S9YNeUUuqjoi3Eh5/s1600/20151012_183228+MINE.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="1600" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7-X49uQWOX9Rh5rBwpr04Sh8P4vR7q4INjSvpkb2w2ApSvwSM6qqIaKY7qNNpP2y_R7CGdpGLW4rdlPkMvIuJ95JFVS8oZJayjmN-ud0JJSspdgqlm7Wyki-iyU23S9YNeUUuqjoi3Eh5/s320/20151012_183228+MINE.jpg" width="320" /></a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -24px;">With already the weakest passports in the world, t</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">hings started to look up for African countries in 2018, with a grandiose scheme to introduce a continent-wide e</span><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">-Passport. This will allow African Union passport holders to enter any of the 54 member states without visas.</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But this week the EU warned that tough new visa requirements will be introduced targeting the source states that are responsible for hundreds of thousands of economic migrants illegally entering Europe each year. Unless they cooperate to readily re-admit their own citizens who have been refused asylum by EU countries, </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">stricter conditions for processing visas applications from African countries will follow. These include </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Mali, Senegal and the Ivory Coast. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">New visa restrictions will include longer </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">processing time, the length of validity of visas issued, higher fees and exemptions for diplomatic passport holders. The latter will surely hurt the travelling bureaucratic elites of Africa and should have an immediate impact and encourage offending states to re-admit their own citizens. </span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6282832069146243295.post-2130753044899672722018-02-28T22:33:00.004-08:002018-02-28T22:33:51.844-08:00Justin Trudeau calamatous Indian diplomacy<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmCmD4l7cnYCJQLQ5MZqWNpEWBUF_cCmgZjw1szdEGuuOZvqendmM3ELFwCF1rDhcvqTvw_iXq9WLXOw_KCC3SRzKO4CSQ1X2yN3h5aWaPmNc_Dil7kcnhaC1DocIuLy81GDkjbfXL02ZJ/s1600/canada-159585__340.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="340" data-original-width="511" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmCmD4l7cnYCJQLQ5MZqWNpEWBUF_cCmgZjw1szdEGuuOZvqendmM3ELFwCF1rDhcvqTvw_iXq9WLXOw_KCC3SRzKO4CSQ1X2yN3h5aWaPmNc_Dil7kcnhaC1DocIuLy81GDkjbfXL02ZJ/s320/canada-159585__340.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div style="background: 0px 0px rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.75); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 20px; line-height: 3.2rem; margin-bottom: 3.2rem; margin-top: 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau just came back from an eight-day trip to India. The general perception is that Trudeau probably wishes he never went, following a disastrous experience which caused unmeasurable harm to the strong diplomatic ties between the two countries. This ranged from Trudeau getting involved in domestic Indian and separatist Sikh politics, to his outlandish ethnic outfits for each occasion, to being snubbed by Prime Minister Modi until the last day. It was followed by a diplomatic storm with Trudeau accusing factions in the Indian government of sabotaging his trip and a damning response by the Indian government. Trudeau certainly won't be seen anywhere near India ever again, adding to his equally disastrous visit to China a few months earlier.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuYVDz_jZRuJlDOnEdmjlVmWGLcW6oN7do4S95yjAknLy5xlkyYULulV2eHHlYoZ-rAH9h55QaTykpAPIz5tYAHR-cLMUeQRPJ_z1q9EVF2qXJgQ8n5qYlryZAJKD6J6Z-F2utMKAdI7g0/s1600/india-flag-3096740__340.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="340" data-original-width="509" height="132" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuYVDz_jZRuJlDOnEdmjlVmWGLcW6oN7do4S95yjAknLy5xlkyYULulV2eHHlYoZ-rAH9h55QaTykpAPIz5tYAHR-cLMUeQRPJ_z1q9EVF2qXJgQ8n5qYlryZAJKD6J6Z-F2utMKAdI7g0/s200/india-flag-3096740__340.png" width="200" /></a></div>
<div style="background: 0px 0px rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.75); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 20px; line-height: 3.2rem; margin-bottom: 3.2rem; margin-top: 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
A bit of historical perspective: In 1958 when Canadian PM John Diefenbaker <span style="background-color: transparent;">visited India, officials debated the pros and cons of whether he should go on a tiger hunt, and they concluded that one of the cons was that the "Prime Minister could be eaten by tiger." After Trudeau's visit, the prevailing sentiment is more likely to be that in the latter’s case, being eaten by a tiger would have been a big pro.</span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6282832069146243295.post-17115948142055715342017-12-19T13:02:00.001-08:002018-02-08T22:17:02.769-08:00The lessons that Jacob Zuma can learn from PW Botha<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiZJZHW2ChpWpyLOB0TEiRaciUPcuy7rST2Hs9fIQjR8gg0uJuhP4J603db6MJLvnWLhiGrQglmI4RgYr8JfVjicMbmiSfb_H_iukomYsz5MFYQBHTvSvHFAMju_GGq6qcWJnC0gJOdyAP/s1600/imagesLHTHG38P+FREE.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="183" data-original-width="275" height="425" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiZJZHW2ChpWpyLOB0TEiRaciUPcuy7rST2Hs9fIQjR8gg0uJuhP4J603db6MJLvnWLhiGrQglmI4RgYr8JfVjicMbmiSfb_H_iukomYsz5MFYQBHTvSvHFAMju_GGq6qcWJnC0gJOdyAP/s640/imagesLHTHG38P+FREE.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">Read the full article by Jackie Cameron in Biznews.com: <a href="https://www.biznews.com/thought-leaders/2017/12/20/jacob-zuma-pw-botha/">https://www.biznews.com/thought-leaders/2017/12/20/jacob-zuma-pw-botha/</a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">The
election of Cyril Ramaphosa as president of the African National Congress and
Jacob Zuma remaining on as the South African president for a further 18 months,
is reminiscent of another era in South African politics.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Almost
28 years earlier, in January 1989, the South African president, PW Botha, had a
mild stroke and decided unilaterally and without thinking too deeply about the
implications, to separate his position as president from that of leader of the
National Party. Ostensibly Botha wanted to ‘lighten his workload’ and to be
able fulfill the role as a national ‘unifier’ for all races. He resigned as party
leader in February and requested the party to elect a new leader. FW de Klerk’s
narrow victory as leader of the National Party on the same day set-in motion a
chain of events that led to Botha being forced out seven months later.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%;">The
conflict that ensued between De Klerk and Botha was, at its core, a power
struggle between two centers of power. Botha became a president without a power base
(except for the one that he believed he had among all “good South Africans”),
and De Klerk felt that he had the base to implement his own reformist policies.
Over the next few months Botha pretended as if nothing has changed and tried to
continue with general policy-making decisions, including issues of national security,
foreign affairs, constitutional affairs and the economy, while De Klerk
attempted to stamp his authority on the government and began to contemplate some
progressive reforms. Clashes ranged from subtle barbs by Botha, challenging his
successor’s status and motives, and Botha’s private reception of the still-imprisoned
Nelson Mandela without consulting De Klerk. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%;">The
hostility between the two men eventually turned into open conflict over the
date of the next general election and matters came to a head in August 1989, when
a seething Botha publicly challenged De Klerk on his meeting with Kenneth
Kaunda of Zambia. The vast majority of the NP caucus supported De Klerk. Botha
had several options – he could fire the whole cabinet, call a general election
or resign. After a volatile cabinet meeting where a bitter Botha levied recrimination
against his colleagues, he announced his resignation on television the next
day. As Botha’s successor, De Klerk then continued to transform the South African
political landscape within the next six months. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%;">While
the constitutional position in which PW Botha found himself in 1989 differs
from that which Zuma finds himself 28 years later, the principle of a weakened leader
without a loyal and legitimate powerbase remains the same. Ramaphosa will soon want
to change the direction of the country away from the ‘failing state’ that SA
has become under the corruption, state capture and incompetence of the Zuma
era. While Zuma has everything to gain from the status quo and still has his
grip on the levers of power as President, the center of gravity has dramatically
shifted to the new leader.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%;">And
during his remaining time as President and probably much sooner, Zuma will learn
that Ramaposa’s power base has increased exponentially and that he will be directly
challenged on all fronts. This includes Zuma’s prerogative to appoint cabinet
ministers. Zuma’s short-term salvation might be that fact that 49% of the
congress voted for his preferred candidate Dlameni-Zuma, but even this leverage
will wear off as Ramaphosa tightens his grip on power. Conflict on policy and
administration will emerge between Zuma and Ramaphosa, just like between FW de
Klerk and PW Botha. Like Botha, Zuma will be on the losing side most of the
time, and he probably has less than six months left as President of South
Africa. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Johann van Rooyen, for Global Finances and Politics</span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6282832069146243295.post-70754200765638179242017-12-05T16:31:00.001-08:002017-12-05T16:31:03.195-08:00EU crackdown on tax havens<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglGKeRO5Jhs8hNGFK02hnE52Bg1nbPGUMie_D1DVOY8HY3KSRlgP3BuswcTUaOMw40EPGEA-J_RNekbGTlYWcJ664uVOzpgFX_tF0ShHdJtJXGIHOnvwLClB9lOMR6zzhfsyR8vAS0j78Y/s1600/panama-papers-1309777__340FREE.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="340" data-original-width="510" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglGKeRO5Jhs8hNGFK02hnE52Bg1nbPGUMie_D1DVOY8HY3KSRlgP3BuswcTUaOMw40EPGEA-J_RNekbGTlYWcJ664uVOzpgFX_tF0ShHdJtJXGIHOnvwLClB9lOMR6zzhfsyR8vAS0j78Y/s320/panama-papers-1309777__340FREE.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: justify;">The EU has placed 17 countries
and territories on a tax haven blacklist and put a further 47 on notice. This follows
the revelations contained in the Panama and the Paradise Papers, and estimates
that about $673 billion is lost to governments each year due to aggressive tax avoidance.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The EU blacklist and will
be linked to European legislation to ensure these jurisdictions will not be
eligible for funds from the EU (except for development aid), but apart from
that, no real sanctions were put in place. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The blacklist includes
South Korea, Mongolia, Namibia, Panama, Trinidad & Tobago, Bahrain and the
United Arab Emirates, Guam, American Samoa, Barbados, Grenada, Macau, the
Marshall Islands, Palau, St Lucia, Samoa and Tunisia. Interestingly, only three
countries on this list - St Lucia, Grenada and Panama - are also actively engaged
in residency- and citizenship by investment programmes.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Hopefully this will further
counter the misperception that countries ‘selling’ 2<sup>nd</sup> passports are
necessarily synonymous with blacklisted tax havens or involved in dubious tax practices. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6282832069146243295.post-54925828831091276842017-12-01T10:21:00.001-08:002017-12-01T10:27:55.126-08:00Electric cars cheaper than gas<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJTS3FQ1tcHXJd87uIPPWYU4Fsl2dWWTy2QB1xwKPeGR30kbSW3IuRSET1idV8rVe5B87MypFyOgqnZsAcHMRw9Q0HCIJIzUQ3k19B2H-NeweWp_7A4_mr6Os6jbcX0-XEeQQCeDitOzeZ/s1600/electric-car-1458836__340.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="340" data-original-width="605" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJTS3FQ1tcHXJd87uIPPWYU4Fsl2dWWTy2QB1xwKPeGR30kbSW3IuRSET1idV8rVe5B87MypFyOgqnZsAcHMRw9Q0HCIJIzUQ3k19B2H-NeweWp_7A4_mr6Os6jbcX0-XEeQQCeDitOzeZ/s320/electric-car-1458836__340.jpg" width="320" /></a>Electric cars are already cheaper to own and run than petrol or diesel cars in the UK, US (Texas and California) and Japan, taking into account subsidies, purchase price, depreciation, fuel, insurance, taxation and maintenance.<br />
<br />
According to an article in the Guardian, if this trend continues, electric cars are expected to become the cheapest option even without subsidies in a few years. Read the whole article below:
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6282832069146243295.post-42379597423040562552017-11-19T18:46:00.003-08:002017-11-19T18:46:46.724-08:00Great residency options for HNWIshttps://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/globe-wealth/real-estate-hot-spots-draw-the-worlds-affluent/article35942457/Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6282832069146243295.post-13435722931001146392017-08-22T16:54:00.004-07:002018-04-06T19:52:48.416-07:00CROSS BORDER PLANNING FOR THE PRIVATE CLIENT - LONDON 28-29 SEP 2017<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4s9l5UPB7Lxlm6CVKR1Wzj5413Ta6TzZ8y3X1ws4ge2oezpjSIBborSKNNo23NTLIourJzVJovYA4txdflUZcvTSfn6prXSTklhFGheBt3RL0XGEFYvBbg7HYdlOFfztm9wM4Qi8y1MyD/s1600/20170816_150539.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="1600" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4s9l5UPB7Lxlm6CVKR1Wzj5413Ta6TzZ8y3X1ws4ge2oezpjSIBborSKNNo23NTLIourJzVJovYA4txdflUZcvTSfn6prXSTklhFGheBt3RL0XGEFYvBbg7HYdlOFfztm9wM4Qi8y1MyD/s400/20170816_150539.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<a href="http://www.residencycitizenship4investors.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/20170816_150539.jpg"></a>I will be speaking at this event on 29th September in London. VIP passes with free attendance are available, should anybody be in the neighbourhood at the time: VIP Code FKW53524SPK.<br />
<br />
<!-- x-tinymce/html --><br />
https://finance.knect365.com/cross-border-planning-for-the-private-client-europe/?vip_code=FKW53524SPK&utm_source=Speaker&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=FKW53524SPK-Speaker-Email&utm_content=FKW53524SPK&tracker_id=FKW53524SPKUnknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6282832069146243295.post-1273967231965857882017-05-01T16:04:00.001-07:002017-05-04T15:49:55.239-07:00The end of Jacob Zuma?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">Could the broad anti-Zuma protests which are now reaching a
crescendo across South Africa, finally be bringing the President close to his Ceaușescu moment?
</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0FezsEsOAvJzdRPDnYdCFmTl9SXWHvGRJiPOUWq-GjRHQuvUvZ0YOU8eW2iBv1TrBTmkjOTyqfpcibVXsOT-gU0wNQzepLL2rbrZvox0qyDIBnclfozoK9XyCCwzqw_OXjo6fxnZw9-mJ/s1600/south-africa-2122942__340.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0FezsEsOAvJzdRPDnYdCFmTl9SXWHvGRJiPOUWq-GjRHQuvUvZ0YOU8eW2iBv1TrBTmkjOTyqfpcibVXsOT-gU0wNQzepLL2rbrZvox0qyDIBnclfozoK9XyCCwzqw_OXjo6fxnZw9-mJ/s320/south-africa-2122942__340.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<o:p></o:p><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">The humiliating and crushing treatment dished out to Zuma at the main Workers’
Day rally in Bloemfontein on the 1<sup>st</sup> of May where he was
prevented from speaking by trade unions members, could finally spell the end of
his presidency. This is in addition to several months of calls for his to
resignation from leaders across the spectrum, including </span><span style="color: #252524; font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">opposition parties, members of the tripartite
alliance – Cosatu and the SACP, ANC veterans, three former South African
Presidents and Archbishop Desmond Tutu, and even members of his own cabinet.</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">The significance of Zuma booed and heckled will have emboldened the anti-Zuma elements both within the ANC
alliance and in the opposition, especially supporters of the EFF, a party which
is frequently thrown out of Parliament when disrupting Zuma's speaches. His rapidly diminishing support-base is now limited to group of financial beneficiaries, assorted sycophants and the Gupta
family. The rousing applause that Vice-President Cyril Ramaphosa received
at a similar venue and his open criticism of Zuma, make it unlikely for the two
men to ever appear together at a public venue again. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">When </span><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">Nicolae Ceaușescu </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">of Romania, Erich Honecker of East Germany were confronted by hostile and resentful crowds and were seen
as powerless to do anything about it, the floodgates finally opened and soon
led to their downfall. Zuma should keep these examples in mind in case he is
considering an authoritarian response to growing opposition to his Presidency,
as Matthews Posa warned he might doing.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">In either case, South Africa has moved past the point of no-return,
where either the masses in the streets will soon bring down Zuma, or his own
Party will do so as an act of self-preservation. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; text-align: justify;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">© Johann van Rooyen, 1 May 2017</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">Also see the author's other blog at <a href="http://www.residencycitizenship4investors.com/" target="_blank"> Residency and Citizenship for Investors</a></span><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.residencycitizenship4investors.com/" target="_blank"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZGW7N9D3b4mYS1xRyG_5vH4rMidL_RF0mWLpjUYl5ol9DqcR5ikYD-W2rB4YxKpbDAr6_EPgptmMt-hgUHrkGibIRAu9rd6fIoUi_Fw2qDyTPf24quIbNZVC5gOCLgrzBFuc4LfXkYHJj/s320/cover.jpg" width="232" /></a></div>
<br /></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6282832069146243295.post-13563000807738780812017-04-20T10:00:00.000-07:002017-05-01T13:39:21.479-07:00Why oil is doomed<div class="articleBodyText section" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333;">
<div class="article-body-text component " style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-left: 82.3333px; margin-right: 0px;">
<div class="component-content" style="box-sizing: border-box;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">According to Dieter Helm, an Oxford University economics
professor with a track-record of correctly predicting oil prices, the oil
market downturn has got a long way to run (cited by Jillian Ambrose</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"> in the Telegraph 17 April
2017). </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvAWsjuHU_m7HsCjK3IY7JjN9bgG3t2hyphenhyphenQXBVrr7GJKDH8Nsp1FM3WUfwWKSpbEtbmMG9qXqwvCk2FzfxwXXqCC3uWvJkz2cCzyOMsDQinRVx2idRD04672PGL1k_B9vIqJ-NXugvdocPP/s1600/oil-106913__340.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvAWsjuHU_m7HsCjK3IY7JjN9bgG3t2hyphenhyphenQXBVrr7GJKDH8Nsp1FM3WUfwWKSpbEtbmMG9qXqwvCk2FzfxwXXqCC3uWvJkz2cCzyOMsDQinRVx2idRD04672PGL1k_B9vIqJ-NXugvdocPP/s400/oil-106913__340.jpg" width="400" /></a><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">The main reason, he argues, is concern over climate change and the renewable
energy revolution, in particular, electric cars. He says that the burgeoning
market for electric vehicles is underestimated and 'could radically change' the
outlook for oil demand. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">Even BP admits that electric car use could halve the
demand of drivers for oil and that the number of electric vehicles could double
from previous estimates of 57 million to 100 million in 2035. Even this is
probably a vast under-estimation, considering the rate at which car companies
are turning out new electric vehicles, Tesla being just one. BMW is planning to
bring out several EV models and Chevy's Bolt offers a cheaper alternative with range of 400km on a single charge, comparable with Tesla and gas-powered engines. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsVQX8g6PeYWOkBtpn9mx2F9XBKBNZGNZqBXxKcuSA6iyx8PViracd-t7vvbZWwTvo9q21R-Cok9LBiM5nRoNDfxbGDQ27FsO6uEjtq-gsxJljSZZEcOHd6-Nt24uTYCju0UucSI4j2EHh/s1600/sunset-2165885__340.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="178" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsVQX8g6PeYWOkBtpn9mx2F9XBKBNZGNZqBXxKcuSA6iyx8PViracd-t7vvbZWwTvo9q21R-Cok9LBiM5nRoNDfxbGDQ27FsO6uEjtq-gsxJljSZZEcOHd6-Nt24uTYCju0UucSI4j2EHh/s320/sunset-2165885__340.jpg" width="320" /></a><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">Helm argues that industry shifts to a low carbon future
means prices may continue to fall ‘forever’ and so far only BP and Royal Dutch
Shell are adjusting, albeit very slowly, away from oil to gas and towards
low-carbon energy. He advises oil companies, with total assets of $1 trillion
and $300 billion in gas assets to follow a 'ruthless harvest-and-exit
strategy', slashing capital expenditure, pumping remaining reserves, cutting
cost and paying out very high dividends.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">(c) Johann van Rooyen, 20 April 2017</span></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 2.5rem; margin-bottom: 16px;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6282832069146243295.post-74475137952344788362016-12-12T14:36:00.003-08:002016-12-12T14:36:52.926-08:00The Chinese Dragon - riskier than you think?<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;">
<b><span style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">China is in the process of </span>aggressively<span style="font-size: 12pt;"> and rapidly expanding its hegemony around the world and it is building up its military might. However, the biggest risk posed by this superpower lies in the financial sphere and it is resulting in people and capital leaving the country at </span>unprecedented<span style="font-size: 12pt;"> levels. </span></span></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;">
<b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDFpYuVkEa8nfx_k2W_WTMKXFDXIQjW4b3fgwbcqzmvd-n5UINFLHZcbG6hGv-d2exA2xvQsY1nPGKMZ2DAOVh3vzAGiB8PW1pVTOkVL6S2_PBlicmlMGZnquORiskYH1aVeACChpjUjxK/s1600/china-1020914__340.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDFpYuVkEa8nfx_k2W_WTMKXFDXIQjW4b3fgwbcqzmvd-n5UINFLHZcbG6hGv-d2exA2xvQsY1nPGKMZ2DAOVh3vzAGiB8PW1pVTOkVL6S2_PBlicmlMGZnquORiskYH1aVeACChpjUjxK/s320/china-1020914__340.png" width="320" /></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">China is embroiled in dangerous geopolitical adventures in the South China Sea,
making grandiose territorial claims and building artificial islands.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"> It reaches into other countries to silence
critics, is becoming more repressive and remains an authoritarian one-party
state. It suffers from high levels of pollution and corruption. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">These
tendencies are making many wealthy Chinese anxious and looking for a way out</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%;">China is already the largest source
of regular emigrants in the</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%;"> world, with more than half-a-million
Chinese immigrants settling in the OECD bloc in 2013 and millions more are
waiting their turn. China is also the largest source of
investor-class emigrants and as pointed out previously, in many host
countries Chinese make up close to 80% CBI applicants. <o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Chinese buyers now the largest source of foreign investment in the U.S., Canadian and Australian residential property markets, driving prices sky-high.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 16px;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%;">10%
of China’s billionaires have already
emigrated and more than half of its 1.3
million millionaires plan to leave of the country in the next five years -
that is about 650,000 or about 130,000 per year until 2020. Whether they will
succeed is anybody’s guess, since only 9,000 managed to leave last year.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyXOBYimEzXMkINGjwiqh23kYkZAHHP5VipZcaD2boRTbzI45EcHc4-QOhkKxPk9mCdfhYuSJemLXwStu0QGB-k0HrBxi1nIpN2JYJTt5pLJzzDEgb7D0OfGDdv-K6R2DtzbM46ImlODyv/s1600/temple-1876075__340.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyXOBYimEzXMkINGjwiqh23kYkZAHHP5VipZcaD2boRTbzI45EcHc4-QOhkKxPk9mCdfhYuSJemLXwStu0QGB-k0HrBxi1nIpN2JYJTt5pLJzzDEgb7D0OfGDdv-K6R2DtzbM46ImlODyv/s320/temple-1876075__340.jpg" width="320" /></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%;">China is experiencing large capital and
migrant outflows</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%;"> - between US$450 billion and US$1.2
trillion of capital left China last year, often in the suitcases the millions
of Chinese emigrants and tourists. Chinese emigrants are allowed $50,000 per
year, but this is not well-enforced and desperate Chinese emigrants simply
smuggle their cash across borders. For example, border guards at the Vancouver
airport seized $13-million in hidden currency over the past two years, that is
in addition to the $323-million of declared currency (over $10,000) by Chinese tourists.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%;"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Apart
from capital outflows, China has $28
trillion in outstanding loans. Its credit-to-GDP gap is now three times over the danger threshold and much higher than the US
subprime bubble. Its total credit of 255% of GDP
poses a risk of a full-blown banking and systemic financial
crisis, with obvious consequences
for migration flows: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">The hypothesis is this: the
greater the economic risk, the faster Chinese money and emigrants move offshore.
The faster they move offshore, the greater the fear that stricter capital
controls will be implemented - Which in turn could speed up the exodus in a pre-emptive
effort to avoid the clampdown – once the clampdown occurs, there will be a
dramatic slowdown of both people and capital. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 150%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6282832069146243295.post-7638714131193114722015-12-10T17:42:00.000-08:002016-11-14T13:55:27.226-08:00Resources meltdown: Armageddon or an opportunity?By Johann van Rooyen<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgS_gfUF5hPUV_GeTbphm-PraoLs8fYPVGpk_4_vyloFEFPhWIHM9UGGqnjiUF5V706H-OBLpbh94aFTnwPmopxODpkkqFfbtcdBLpSMHHadg_yrfdMxEuGJomoQp3gjqzFeyKWRVs8fHWh/s1600/20131111_101451.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgS_gfUF5hPUV_GeTbphm-PraoLs8fYPVGpk_4_vyloFEFPhWIHM9UGGqnjiUF5V706H-OBLpbh94aFTnwPmopxODpkkqFfbtcdBLpSMHHadg_yrfdMxEuGJomoQp3gjqzFeyKWRVs8fHWh/s200/20131111_101451.jpg" width="150" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">With the Bloomberg commodity index (representing 22 raw
materials) trading at a 16-year low and billions of dollars having being wiped
off the value of mining companies, overwhelming fear and despondency have
gripped resources investors worldwide.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><b>Commodity prices are collapsing</b>. The price of iron ore has dropped by 45%
this year, that of copper by 27% and other minerals by even more. Glencore and Anglo
American have lost more than 70% of their market cap this year alone - the
latter just announced that it is slashing its assets and workforce by over 60%.
Glencore is selling its assets as fast as it can, BHP has shifted its worst
performing assets into a separate company and Rio Tinto has slashed capital
expenditure by $1 billion. While the immediate outlook for these relatively financially
sounder large companies is dismal, hundreds of smaller resources companies face
extinction - collectively the commodity
sector issued $1.9 trillion in bonds over the past five years and there is
great concern now for the ability of many of these companies to keep on servicing
their debt.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><b>How did it come to this</b>, so fast and so severe, from a
commodity supercycle to a complete bust? Basically it is a combination of three
things: </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">1. </span><span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">A massive over-supply caused by the money printing
and low interest rates of the central banks of the United States, Europe and
China - this led to vast-scale borrowing
to open new mines and increase supply;</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">2. <span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal;"> </span></span><span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">As the dollar becomes stronger, it makes commodities
more expensive and reduces demand further;</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">3.<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal;"> </span></span><span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">A slowing Chinese economy and the resulting lower
demand for resources from the world’s biggest consumer of resources. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">With all this doom and gloom it is not surprising that
virtually all analysts and fund managers are predicting prices to continue
sliding and expecting even more of a <b>commodities Armageddon.</b> The ‘get out of commodities’
trade is virtually unanimous and blood is almost literally flowing in the
streets of commodity land.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">But, the question for the astute and more risk-tolerant investor
is whether this then not the <b>time to be a contrarian</b> and go the opposite way,
to buy assets of solid companies that are on a sale at a price of 10 - 30% what
they cost one year ago?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAi5Zucmc19nolQJ2RQ82FxmFx7SXoKel0QGlxUlu7_ZfJ19I8uyft4d-601CY9fHEcwUFTL7phDiYfEQ52OQ7DK5Jy_pMK8g-w2ZctvrtULqCSPyNjIRqlrQ9PCXzCrs6UkNMStclyC4I/s1600/20151011_191905.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="112" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAi5Zucmc19nolQJ2RQ82FxmFx7SXoKel0QGlxUlu7_ZfJ19I8uyft4d-601CY9fHEcwUFTL7phDiYfEQ52OQ7DK5Jy_pMK8g-w2ZctvrtULqCSPyNjIRqlrQ9PCXzCrs6UkNMStclyC4I/s200/20151011_191905.jpg" width="200" /></a><span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">There are several <b>compelling reasons</b> to consider such as
move, least of all outstanding longer term value found in many of the former resources
blue chips – most are trading at a 19% discount on net asset values at forward
curve prices, according to an RBC analysis. A second reason is that, as mining
companies such as Anglo are cutting back supply, supply and demand will reach
an equilibrium eventually and any supply disruption could cause panic buying without
much warning. Thirdly, China and the Eurozone both have their hand on the
stimulus tap and would not be averse to unleash more QE, which could benefit commodities.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">Fourthly, the U.S. economy is growing steadily now and it remains the second
largest consumer of commodities. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">Lastly, the strong dollar may have already
discounted the pending rise in U.S. interest rates and could eventually adjust
to lower levels, which will make American exports more affordable and resource
prices cheaper.</span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">It is not often that a potential trade is so much against the
overwhelming consensus and there is no doubt that it will be fraught with risk,
but for the patient investor who uses cost-averaging, the benefits could be
substantial. </span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<o:p></o:p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6282832069146243295.post-85980728662298136172015-06-23T15:23:00.000-07:002015-06-23T15:23:40.916-07:00ANC government destroying South African tourism sector<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEic03t5uAEGb8ixU4011PMqn39e7E-a2-dsRgW0GTfGgY2iCGpRgkBAokkIRIoshHxFN34HTu4D00zF20sdy2wSauy1FSg2baKONSCFiwriTXldmI1JREp1qBbAMwVcPJWvwafPD0Gbvmu3/s1600/DSC00151.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEic03t5uAEGb8ixU4011PMqn39e7E-a2-dsRgW0GTfGgY2iCGpRgkBAokkIRIoshHxFN34HTu4D00zF20sdy2wSauy1FSg2baKONSCFiwriTXldmI1JREp1qBbAMwVcPJWvwafPD0Gbvmu3/s320/DSC00151.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6000003814697px;">A recent report by the </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6000003814697px;">Tourism Business Council of SA </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6000003814697px;">suggests that the number of lost foreign tourists due to changes in South African immigration regulations in 2015 will increase to 100 000, with a direct tourism spend of R1.4bn and the total net loss to the South African GDP of around R4.1bn and a loss of 9 300 jobs.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6000003814697px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6000003814697px;">The changes refer to </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6000003814697px;">the requirement for all children under the age of 18 travelling to and from South Africa to be in possession of an unabridged birth certificate in addition to their passport and visa and secondly, that </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6000003814697px;">tourists from countries that are required to have a visa to now appear in person during the visa application process in order to obtain a biometric visa. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6000003814697px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6000003814697px;">Not only is the ANC government led by Jacob Zuma corrupt, incompetent and out of control, but it is now downright suicidal by destroying the booming foreign tourism sector and causing irreparable harm to the South African economy. Can the Deputy President, Cyril Ramaphosa wait too much longer before he gets rid of Zuma through a palace revolution? </span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6282832069146243295.post-18361889437758395792015-05-14T17:21:00.000-07:002015-05-14T17:21:27.789-07:0058-trillion reasons why you should be worrried<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1bGkoKryhYcjj6QScNwtcr6rkhuNuCKYiypRNplgRGoEoJSUfvqs_khyphenhyphenv6-sXGNvEuCMkdMybZRCksgFai3UEm116WBxDc35uNKPS8JTd6nkGWNzTjSorVBbr0Z7sVOVg-1WOjH9NQAJc/s1600/20130416_185732.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1bGkoKryhYcjj6QScNwtcr6rkhuNuCKYiypRNplgRGoEoJSUfvqs_khyphenhyphenv6-sXGNvEuCMkdMybZRCksgFai3UEm116WBxDc35uNKPS8JTd6nkGWNzTjSorVBbr0Z7sVOVg-1WOjH9NQAJc/s320/20130416_185732.jpg" width="240" /></a></div>
Following weeks of relentless turmoil in the world's bond markets which saw bonds losing a collective $450 billion and yields rising rapidly, there is growing fear of a bond market implosion. Post-2008/09 government spending and the issuance of debt has led to an almost 80% increase in government obligations to over $58 trillion worldwide.<br />
<br />
The fear is that even the safest government debt is not as safe as previously assumed, hence the wild swings in (the bluest-chip) German government 10-year bonds - where yields went from 0.05% to 0.70% in less than a month, to mid-May. The situation is of course much worse in basket-cases such as Greece, Hungary and the Ukraine, but terms of debt-to-GDP ratio, has even reached dangerous levels in Italy, Japan, Malaysia, China, Ireland, Singapore and Belgium.<br />
<br />
According to Claus Vogt, co-author of 'The Global Debt Trap' (cited in The Globe and Mail, 14 May 2015), the massive government debt has reached bubble proportions due to money-printing and interest rates already at close to 0%. A minor black-swan event and a loss of confidence in central bankers abilities to manage unprecedented quantitative easing, could lead to "a stampede out of stock and bonds" and presumably the collapse of financial markets. Bonds are not generally not as liquid as stocks and a sudden mass rush out of the market would be catastrophic.<br />
<br />
Similarly, there is a huge risk in fixed-income ETFs, should such a s collapse occur. These bond ETFs are not very liquid and could be severely impacted by mass-liquidations. While large issuers of these ETFs such as Vanguard have created bank guarantees and lines of credit to provide liquidity in case of a rush to the exits by investors, it is doubtful if these facilities would be sufficient. For example Vanguard created a facility of $2.89 billion, but this is meant to cover $3 trillion of assets, i.e. less than one-tenth of one percent.<br />
<br />
With stock markets in Europe booming and reaching new highs almost daily in the United States and following years of huge gains from bond investing, the party may be coming to an end, and it may happen much faster and with a much more severe outcome than foreseen by most. Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6282832069146243295.post-80114059062503477602015-03-13T17:24:00.000-07:002016-11-14T18:31:56.861-08:00 Solar energy reaching critical mass?<br />
During 2015, a total of 115 GW (gigawatt) of renewable power projects were started up worldwide, of which China contributed about 45 GW - an investment in renewables of US$329 billion. One GW can power about 700,00 houses and a total of 914 GW has now been installed worldwide, enough to power 640 million homes.<br />
<br />
Solar remains the largest renewable component and after overcoming many hurdles over the past decade, the solar industry is rapidly reaching sufficient momentum to become a major element of the world's energy supply.<br />
<br />
With technological advances and falling costs (by 75% over the past few years), solar energy, especially the roof-top solar panels, are fast becoming competitive with coal (the cheapest and dirtiest form of power generation) and could be on par in terms of cost within 18 months, according to Deutsche Bank - and it can now survive virtually without government subsidies.<br />
<br />
Home-based solar systems are becoming the norm in new housing in the southern and western United States where there is abundant sunshine and where 600,000 homes are already fitted with solar panels. It provides homeowners not only with electricity on par with traditional carbon-based energy supplies, but it enables them to go 'off-grid', especially in countries such as South Africa which cannot meet demand and suffer from serious supply interruptions. Homeowners with solar are also able to store excess power in batteries or to sell it to the grid at a profit.<br />
<br />
In addition, with the growing environmental movement and concern about climate change, clean and renewable solar power has no competition from all other forms of energy production, except perhaps from thermal or hydro-electricity, but even then its footprint is so much smaller than that of hydro.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8aJW2MOvSLJMBWO0HdDcRkiqvY_HBj8QKu8v5wWPDm57S0HUm_a7aEDm0aJjT8TuMmfx9Q_MjO1wi21tA5ZPF_mm2hHxqE2zkzGNXukEtiOyYJhsdyFOn6Q0dPZgRxrJmdsm2JFybZzMp/s1600/img573.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="251" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8aJW2MOvSLJMBWO0HdDcRkiqvY_HBj8QKu8v5wWPDm57S0HUm_a7aEDm0aJjT8TuMmfx9Q_MjO1wi21tA5ZPF_mm2hHxqE2zkzGNXukEtiOyYJhsdyFOn6Q0dPZgRxrJmdsm2JFybZzMp/s1600/img573.jpg" width="320" /></a>All of this provides huge opportunities for investors and there are a number of investment opportunities in the form of companies with leading-edge technology and efficient cost-structures and in the funds which invest in these companies. <a href="http://www.firstsolar.com/" target="_blank">First Solar</a> is arguably the leader in thin-film solar panel production and provider of utility-scale PV power plants, while <a href="http://www.sunedison.com/" target="_blank">SunEdison</a> develops, builds, owns and operates solar plants and manufactures solar panels and components. <a href="http://www.solarcity.com/" target="_blank">SolarCity</a> finances, constructs and then leases solar-power systems (typically for 20 years) to domestic customers in the United States. Former South African, Tesla's Elon Musk, is also the chairman of SolarCity and he is aiming to use the Tesla-SolarCity partnership to jointly develop lithium-ion batteries that can be used both for the electric cars and household solar power storage. SolarCity aims to increase its customers base from about 170,000 to one million by 2018 - this will represent only a 2.5% penetration of the American domestic market, leaving an immense untapped market. For investors who want to play it safe and diversify, the Guggenheim solar ETF called <a href="http://guggenheiminvestments.com/products/etf/tan" target="_blank">TAN</a> provides a good spread of the top solar companies - its six top holdings are Hanergy, Sunedison, First Solar, Sunpower, SolarCity and GCL.<br />
<br />
Johann van Rooyen (for GlobalFinancesandPolitics)Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6282832069146243295.post-71845756765933713542015-03-03T16:46:00.000-08:002016-11-14T13:56:20.759-08:00Investors: Financial and political risks you should know about, now.<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWbnS7VHf1Y08lSBnpFLr5faPUrjiP_j63uGSWzgNC4FBP6cPFEnBG64x8X7D_djr55R3WytgiGY1qKErHDqfFXjmTEFZolsIViOHR_BWy0h76_WkzOSRs29osKcd_SPA9WFqYUH75VgoE/s1600/2013-04-14+12.14.54.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWbnS7VHf1Y08lSBnpFLr5faPUrjiP_j63uGSWzgNC4FBP6cPFEnBG64x8X7D_djr55R3WytgiGY1qKErHDqfFXjmTEFZolsIViOHR_BWy0h76_WkzOSRs29osKcd_SPA9WFqYUH75VgoE/s1600/2013-04-14+12.14.54.jpg" width="320" /></a><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">As we enter the month of March 2015, with the world's stock markets once again reaching all-time record highs and with fear apparently having disappeared from investors' psyche (as evident by the VIX), there are many reasons to get cautious. Here are a few of the more important financial, economic and political risks that should be built into any 2015 investment decision.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">1. The tech-heavy NASDAQ composite index has again breached the 5,000 mark, 15 years after it did so in March 2000. At that time, it collapsed and lost 78% of its value over the next two years and ended at 1,114. The 5,000 level is fraught with danger and the downside potential hugely outweighs possible further gains. The same holds for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones index, both which reached new all-time highs almost on a daily basis over the past two months. It might be wise at this point to ignore the 'market experts' who never tire of suggesting that "this time it is different" and that the markets are still "very undervalued". Big investors are shifting their money into cash - it might be a good idea to do the same and wait for the inevitable crash or at least a substantial correction. </span> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
2. Denmark's central bank bought a record amount of foreign currency over the past few weeks in order to keep the Danish currency pegged to the Euro, purchasing foreign exchange equal to 9% of Denmarks' GDP. This kind of currency manipulation by Denmark is in line with t<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="color: #111111;">he 'beggar thy neighbour' policies implemented by central banks of Canada, Switzerland, the Euro Zone, Australia, Russia, India, Singapore, Sweden and soon, perhaps China. </span></span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="color: #111111;">The year 2015 is going to be marked by currency wars, devaluation, negative interest rates and central government stimulus policies aimed at fighting deflation and creating competitive advantages of one country over the the next through fiscal engineering. It may provide short-term advantages, but it is logical that if all countries engage in this behaviour simultaneously, there can ultimately be no winner.</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFc_CdLZEEsaCRJPA3UD6qX49gzsWCmEv9E_XMSoMye_0xE3seFALuv9cw8aPpfqBSOTY_mSM9iv3tpx6SWM-1nbmVG6kZxHhhREXiUjmi2PGkyGoQnCzYcO97vgKSGkI8Xt-6MlSXS_5F/s1600/img560.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFc_CdLZEEsaCRJPA3UD6qX49gzsWCmEv9E_XMSoMye_0xE3seFALuv9cw8aPpfqBSOTY_mSM9iv3tpx6SWM-1nbmVG6kZxHhhREXiUjmi2PGkyGoQnCzYcO97vgKSGkI8Xt-6MlSXS_5F/s1600/img560.jpg" width="249" /></a><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="color: #111111;"></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="color: #111111;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="color: #111111;"><br /></span></span></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="color: #111111;">3. Apart from the Greek financial calamity which most likely will end up in Greece's exit from the Eurozone, other sovereign states such as Italy, Spain and Portugal are still facing severe economic difficulties, deflation and massive unemployment. Spain's unemployment rate is 24% and that of Portugal and Italy between 13 and 14% and Eurozone deflation is running on-off at almost 0.5%. But the risks appeared to be spreading to the sub-sovereign level, as pointed out by <span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in The Daily Telegraph. He is referring to the Austrian province of Carinthia, which </span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman";">faces probable bankruptcy after Austria’s central government refused to act as back-stop for debts which is a result of the province's exposure eastern Europe and the Balkans. The Austrian federal government refuse to </span>cover more than €10bn in bond guarantees issued by the Carinthia for the failed lender Hypo Alpe Adria and bondholders may face a 50% hair-cut and the province a possible default and bankruptcy. </span></span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="color: #111111;">This pattern could repeat itself throughout other regions, provinces, states and cities with exposure to the Ukraine and its flirtation with default. <span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman";">Belgium's Wallonia and the Italian region of Sicily</span> are both mentioned a vulnerable by <span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman";">Evans-Pritchard. </span></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman";"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman";">4. But Europe is not alone in facing deflation, financial crisis and more importantly, DEBT. According to the McKinsey Global Institute global debt has increased to by 17% to $57 trillion since 2007, much of it in emerging economies, but even more so in the developed world (cited by Jeremy Warner in The Daily Telegraph). The combined public sector debt of the G7 countries has grown to about 120% of GDP and that of China to 282% of GDP ($28 trillion). While governments traditionally have dealt with debt through inflation, low interest rates and money printing, in today's deflationary environment this does not work at so well. Warner suggests that "as global debt rises off the scale, creditors stand to take a huge hit in a threatened tsunami of defaults...only a mass default will end the world's addiction to debt<span style="font-size: small;">".</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="color: #111111; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">5. The geopolitical risks posed by Russian neo-imperialism and the rise of the radical Islam in the Middle-East, Africa and South-east Asia, cannot be underestimated and could present a disaster to even the most meticulously-planned financial portfolio. Putin's goal of re-uniting Russian-speaking territories in the former Soviet empire, reckless military adventurism and proxy wars are eerily similar to Hitler's goals and behaviour from 1935 to 1939. Putin will probably not stop until either he has achieved his goals or until he is confronted by the possibility of actual conflict with the NATO alliance - even then he probably has calculated that the West will not risk Armageddon to protect Latvia, Estonia or Poland. The Islamic state and its franchise partners al-Qaeda, Boko Haram, </span><span class="st"><span style="color: #111111; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Al-Shabaab, and many </span>sympathizers<span style="color: #111111; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"> already within the borders of Europe and North America, threaten with </span></span><span style="color: #111111; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">a third world war in all but name, spanning continents and lasting decades. Apart from the threat of concerted 9/11-style attacks on Western targets, smaller cells pose a more immediate and real threat to shopping malls, airports, train stations and sports stadiums in London, Paris, Sydney, Ottawa, Copenhagen and New York. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #111111; font-family: "times";"></span><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjT6VORRBf-Ik2UnfO4Jzgf-wERauSYjTWjxFpGkfx_3vtQGRLQN_sGYILPVyELdrKJ7X-wgCWBcNswDVqI0HeRCXnBKQj10AfzEb1XrtHp9c3mipFZx8PaZXqbQEzGVKXtJ0LN8iymK-zW/s1600/20131111_101451.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjT6VORRBf-Ik2UnfO4Jzgf-wERauSYjTWjxFpGkfx_3vtQGRLQN_sGYILPVyELdrKJ7X-wgCWBcNswDVqI0HeRCXnBKQj10AfzEb1XrtHp9c3mipFZx8PaZXqbQEzGVKXtJ0LN8iymK-zW/s1600/20131111_101451.jpg" width="150" /></a><span style="color: #111111; font-family: "times";">6. The decline in the price of oil might not be finished yet. While it has dropped from $147 at its peak five years ago to about $102 last year and to $51 today, supply is still far greater than demand. Currently, the U.S. is producing and importing one million barrels more per day than it is using, pushing oil inventories to the highest levels in 80 years. At this rate storage facilities could reach their maximum capacity by mid-April, causing another drop in oil prices, perhaps to $30 or even $20. </span></div>
<span style="color: #111111;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "times new roman";"></span></span><br />
7. The Chinese economy is slowing down dramatically, opening the way for further declines in the prices of resources and possibly dragging the world economy down with it. China is facing growing budget deficits, production over-capacity, deflation, falling real estate prices and a major credit crunch. Total credit has increased from 100% to 250% of GDP since 2007, according to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in The Daily Telegraph, equalling $26 trillion (the same number as the US and Japanese banking systems combined). In addition, China's official annual GDP has fallen from close to 15% in 2007 to about 7% in 2014. To make matters worse, the Chinese currency is pegged to the inflating U.S. Dollar and has similarly increased its value by 27% against <br />
the Euro and by much more against most other currencies, making exports more difficult. China has now lowered interest rates from 7% to 5.5% in an attempt to address growing fiscal challenges, but ultimately it may have to pull out currency devaluation as its weapon of last resort, something which could severely damage the world economy and send panicked investors fleeing for the hills.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6282832069146243295.post-3835046221375290772015-02-24T17:13:00.000-08:002016-11-14T13:56:32.050-08:00The U.S. tax war on ExpatsThe United States Internal Revenue Service is pursuing a damaging war on its citizens living abroad by demanding tax returns from American citizens worldwide irrespective of where they are resident, leading growing numbers of expat Americans to formally renounce their citizenship. Almost 4,000 Americans did exactly this in 2014, the latest being the mayor of London, Boris Johnson, a dual British and American national.<!-- AdSense Now! V4.41 --><!-- Post[midtext] --><br />
<br />
<div class="adsense adsense-midtext" style="float: right; margin: 12px;">
<!-- Residency --><br />
<ins class="adsbygoogle" data-ad-client="ca-pub-1912466239183430" data-ad-slot="3802786990" data-adsbygoogle-status="done" style="display: inline-block; height: 250px; width: 300px;"><ins id="aswift_0_expand" style="background-color: transparent; border: currentColor; display: inline-table; height: 250px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; visibility: visible; width: 300px;"><ins id="aswift_0_anchor" style="background-color: transparent; border: currentColor; display: block; height: 250px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; visibility: visible; width: 300px;"><iframe allowfullscreen="true" allowtransparency="true" frameborder="0" height="250" hspace="0" id="aswift_0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" name="aswift_0" scrolling="no" style="left: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0px;" vspace="0" width="300"></iframe></ins></ins></ins></div>
<!-- AdSense Now! V4.41 -->According to Brett Arends in the Wall Street Journal’s Marketwatch, U.S. financial laws that make it nearly impossible for expats to keep two passports (not that the U.S. has ever encouraged dual citizenship!). According to Arends, the federal government is “ramping up a wide set of bizarre and impossible regulations on all Americans living abroad — and threatening them with the financial equivalent of the death penalty if they don’t comply…they can be arrested, thrown in jail and bankrupted by Uncle Sam for failing to disclose a $15,000 checking account on which (they) have paid all the taxes owed”. In addition, such expats are liable to double taxation, required to spend thousands of dollars a year on professional advice simply to survive, are effectively barred from investing in either U.S. or non-U.S. based mutual funds and stripped of a number of constitutional rights.<br />
<br />
At the same time, the Obama administration is allowing millions of illegal, or so-called ‘undocumented’ immigrants, mostly from Mexico, to acquire legal status and to get work permits and benefits normally associated with holders of green cards.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6282832069146243295.post-44894157693883713902015-02-16T17:37:00.000-08:002016-11-14T13:57:02.583-08:00Currency Wars 2015<br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">The year 2015 has introduced the phenomena of currency wars, devaluation, negative interest rates and central government stimulus policies aimed at fighting deflation and creating competitive advantages of one country over the the next through fiscal engineering. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<br />
<br />
<div class="social-dd no-social">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span class="c-name" itemprop="author" rel="author"><a href="http://topics.barrons.com/person/F/randall-w-forsyth/6036" target="_blank">Randall W. Forsyth</a> wrote in Barrons that "n</span>ot since the 1930s have central banks of countries around the globe so actively, and desperately, tried to stimulate their domestic economies. Confronted by a lack of domestic demand, which has been constrained by a massive debt load taken on during the boom times, they instead have sought to grab a bigger slice of the global economic pie". However, if the world economy is not growing at a sufficiently rate, in other words if the global pie is not expanding, this is a zero-sum game without any winners, except, as analysts at Morgan Stanley argue, that the early movers in currency wars are the biggest beneficiaries at the expense of the late movers. </span></div>
<div class="social-dd no-social">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="social-dd no-social">
</div>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">This beggar thy neighbour policies implemented by central banks of Canada, Switzerland, Denmark, the Euro Zone, Australia, Russia, India, Singapore and Sweden may provide short -term advantages, but it is logical that if all countries engage in this behaviour simultaneously, there can ultimately be no winner. The U.S. implemented the first large-scale stimulus programme with its quantitative-easing and near 0% interest rates. Japan followed next and now it is the turn of the EU. The world's largest economy, China, might be the next huge player to devalue its currency, a truly frightening prospect. The United States is threatening to punish other states with import tariffs if it can be proven that an exporting country is deliberately weakening their currency to make its exports cheaper and the prospects for global trade war is increasing by the day. </span><br />
<br />
<div class="social-dd no-social">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Ironically, currency devaluation and the return to the Drachma might be Greece's only salvation and a way to rebalance its economy and boost exports and in this case, it might even be the prudent step to take. As for the rest of participants and prospective currency warriors, this can only end badly</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">. </span></div>
<div style="font-size: 15px;">
</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6282832069146243295.post-20320193477894629722015-02-11T17:40:00.000-08:002016-12-02T14:43:38.559-08:00Is Germany fed-up with Greek intransigence?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7bbGHmuJ9vpb_2rQ2vAn-eDUikBIPlfwaBuOHbBOFVoyYB1UeYmDFZo7XtIuocQ4U59NuHb0dN3_FaLAlrXNfDFvNX0VS8Behk8Ypz7w4SIPMC1KDPpdHfK3fa8wEDpnK3pjrnw5wqrk6/s1600/img560.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7bbGHmuJ9vpb_2rQ2vAn-eDUikBIPlfwaBuOHbBOFVoyYB1UeYmDFZo7XtIuocQ4U59NuHb0dN3_FaLAlrXNfDFvNX0VS8Behk8Ypz7w4SIPMC1KDPpdHfK3fa8wEDpnK3pjrnw5wqrk6/s1600/img560.jpg" width="251" /></a></div>
The new Greek governing Party, Syriza, is rapidly moving <br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhh-Ld7FA3opSHWfxn-59g2vnSdkG43eDFiAbURNuT29BHGEyw4dhfGQ_0tTQ5-yeBrlWZEv1pYOxU9uaKRYzskV6uCclg6e59mElKAEIAh2D0S7eyTbCokVF4GWJ0jGxk-etJ19401zO8m/s1600/20151012_183228.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhh-Ld7FA3opSHWfxn-59g2vnSdkG43eDFiAbURNuT29BHGEyw4dhfGQ_0tTQ5-yeBrlWZEv1pYOxU9uaKRYzskV6uCclg6e59mElKAEIAh2D0S7eyTbCokVF4GWJ0jGxk-etJ19401zO8m/s320/20151012_183228.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
into a minefield and down a road of no return. Just when you think could not possibly get worse for Greece, the country propels itself head on to the edge of economic default and total financial ruin, brought onto itself following decades of uncontrolled spending and a ruinous approach to financial governance. Greece is now is making additional strategic blunders by turning against their allies in the European Union and NATO, invoking German war crimes of 70 years ago and demanding 'war' reparations, planning for wholesale debt-write-offs, and threatening the NATO alliance with overtures to Russia.<br />
<br />
It will come as little surprise if Germany throw in the towel and let Greece exit from the EU, and in fact, this scenario has probably already been build into German planning. Germany does not need Greece, but the same cannot be said for Greece. Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6282832069146243295.post-11433403463460595772015-02-11T17:12:00.001-08:002016-11-14T13:57:36.447-08:00Residency through Investment - some easy options<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #141823; line-height: 20px;">Among the most popular 'Club Med' countries where one can obtain residency and a EU passport are Cypress. Malta, Greece, Spain and Portugal. You can get Cypriot permanent residence by transferring about €300,000 to a Cyprus Bank on a fixed </span><span class="text_exposed_show" style="background-color: white; color: #141823; display: inline; line-height: 20px;">deposit for three years.<br /><br />Malta has a Global Residence Program which allows expats the opportunity to buy or rent property in Malta and direct their foreign income to Malta in exchange for residence permit. The minimum investment in property is between €220,000 and €275,000 depending on the region and the minimum tax payable is €15,000 per family, while renters must pay at least €800 monthly.<br /><br />In Spain, the simplest way is to invest €500,000 in a property and in return, obtain a temporary </span></span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<span class="text_exposed_show" style="background-color: white; color: #141823; display: inline; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; line-height: 20px;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMB4F14bQLVYTnRwQewSwFuEqUtAWuKWNIvdY6YnFS83RgDV3H62igF7naAmMX2UJMgsV_mjEGiUIAXNF3L__5IqXmSongDVSxABlYjpdzduHmcRlUGpNKCpbiGYqlfXbM98I9oxd6DNWW/s1600/DSC02279.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><strong><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMB4F14bQLVYTnRwQewSwFuEqUtAWuKWNIvdY6YnFS83RgDV3H62igF7naAmMX2UJMgsV_mjEGiUIAXNF3L__5IqXmSongDVSxABlYjpdzduHmcRlUGpNKCpbiGYqlfXbM98I9oxd6DNWW/s1600/DSC02279.JPG" width="320" /></strong></a> </span><span class="text_exposed_show" style="background-color: white; color: #141823; display: inline; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; line-height: 20px;">residence which has to be renewed each year. After five years the applicant receives permanent residency and citizenship after another five further years. The Spanish temporary residence permit allows for limited travel throughout Schengen zone for 90 days within a 180 day period, but does not give the recipient the right to work in Spain.<br /><br />Portugal offers expats the opportunity to become residents through the Golden Residence Permit and it </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">is available to non-EU investors. Applicants can buy real estate of at least €500,000 or alternatively, make a capital investment of at least €1 million in a Portuguese company or establish a Portuguese company that employs more than ten people. Successful applicants get visa-free access to the Schengen Area, receive permanent residence after five years and Portuguese citizenship one year later.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjE9-lFNGVt-os6qjDoSgviaLAAkisijODvDwwqNk3xkRwDO4jTt11cO5zOSjC9CjLv6D3YI0hXoOeEOsE7AFP94IMopGq2ABirFNCwrNPswf5KhZ_h2sID80adHSwig9K1edfys1-ytaoa/s1600/img506.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><strong><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjE9-lFNGVt-os6qjDoSgviaLAAkisijODvDwwqNk3xkRwDO4jTt11cO5zOSjC9CjLv6D3YI0hXoOeEOsE7AFP94IMopGq2ABirFNCwrNPswf5KhZ_h2sID80adHSwig9K1edfys1-ytaoa/s1600/img506.jpg" width="320" /></strong></span></a><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">As part of its efforts to raise income Greece is offering non-EU investors permanent residency similar to the Golden Visa of Spain and Portugal, by way of an investment of €250,000 in a Greek property for five years or if they own a ten-year time-sharing contract. Residence permits may be renewed for a further five years upon expiry if the resident maintains the status quo, but it does not allow employment</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<script>
(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){i['GoogleAnalyticsObject']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){
(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),
m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)
})(window,document,'script','//www.google-analytics.com/analytics.js','ga');
ga('create', 'UA-59803095-1', 'auto');
ga('send', 'pageview');
</script><br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com